Cities are the main contributors to energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, and they are also important subjects in carrying out carbon emission reduction actions and implementing low-carbon development strategies.

The Fifth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and related studies show that the total economic volume of cities accounts for about 80% of global GDP, their energy consumption accounts for about 67%-76% of global energy consumption, and the CO2 emissions generated account for 71%-76% of global emissions.

Up to now, a total of 87 low-carbon provincial and municipal pilot projects have been carried out in three batches nationwide, of which the 21st Century Institute of Economic Research has selected first-tier and new first-tier cities, planned cities, and some key provincial capitals, for a total of 20 observation cities, namely Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chongqing, Xiamen, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Qingdao, Wuhan, Ningbo, Kunming, Shenyang, Dalian, Nanjing, Hefei Jinan, Changsha and Chengdu.

In November 2016, at the UN Climate Change Conference in Marrakech, Xie Ji, then deputy head of the Chinese delegation, told the media that several Chinese cities had committed to reaching their peak urban carbon emission targets around 2030, and some had also committed to peaking around 2020.

So far, no cities have officially disclosed whether they have achieved emission peak, but after China formally made a clear commitment to the world to reach emission peak and carbon neutrality last year, some cities have proposed more prudent timetables.

The 21st Century Institute of Economic Research has selected several indicators, including resident population, GDP per capita, secondary industry share and electricity consumption of 10,000 Yuan GDP, to present the population size, economic development level, industrial structure and energy consumption intensity of cities, so as to initially judge the status and potential of low carbon development of cities. Due to the lack of systematic data on city-scale energy consumption, the ratio of annual electricity consumption to GDP is used to represent the energy consumption intensity.

It is worth noting that for individual cities, emission peak is a longitudinal yearly comparison concept. For example, if a city has high carbon emissions per unit of GDP, but at the same time, the annual rate of decline is also rapid, it is possible to achieve carbon peak as soon as possible, which means that different cities have higher and lower carbon emissions when achieving peaking.

However, if we take into account the long-term goal of carbon neutrality and compare different cities horizontally, we tend to believe that cities with higher economic development and lower energy consumption have a greater potential to reach the peak and will likely move faster towards carbon neutrality.

　　

 

Beijing-Shanghai-Guangzhou-Shenzhen may be the first to achieve carbon peaking

 

According to the disclosure of the Beijing Statistical Yearbook, in 2019, the energy consumption of Beijing's primary, secondary and tertiary industries for 10,000 yuan GDP was 0.478, 0.351 and 0.141 tons of standard coal, respectively.

It is easy to see that the energy consumption of 10,000 yuan GDP in the tertiary industry is significantly lower than that in the primary and secondary industries. Given the generally small proportion of primary industries in key cities and the fact that in recent years, the proportion of secondary industries is basically in a declining stage, this will bring about an overall decrease in energy consumption levels.

In the case of Beijing, the proportion of the three industries in 2020 is 0.4: 15.8: 83.8, and the proportion of the three industries is already over 80%, which is the highest among the 20 cities mentioned above.

In recent years, Beijing's energy transformation process has also been accelerated. 2017, the last large coal-fired power plant in Beijing was shut down for backup, making Beijing the first city in China to say goodbye to coal power and implement clean energy generation. 2018, nearly 3,000 villages in Beijing have been converted to clean energy, and the plain areas have basically been "coal-free". "The city is the first city in China to leave coal power and implement clean energy generation.

Statistical yearbook data show that from 2010 to 2019, Beijing's coal consumption as a proportion of total energy consumption dropped significantly from 29.59% to 1.81%, the proportion has been so low as to be almost negligible.

According to the relevant person in charge of the Beijing Ecological Environment Bureau, in 2020, Beijing's carbon intensity is expected to drop by more than 23% compared to 2015, exceeding the target of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with the lowest carbon intensity in the country's provincial regions.

Beijing has set a higher target in the 14th Five-Year Plan - a steady decrease in carbon emissions during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and a solid step towards carbon neutrality, so as to make a model for addressing climate change. Beijing's demonstration. This statement may indicate that Beijing's carbon emissions have entered or are about to enter a plateau period and will seek to achieve a decline in the next five years.

Although the tertiary sector has the lowest energy consumption of 10,000 Yuan GDP, this does not necessarily mean that the city needs to pursue a decline in the share of industry. Taking Shanghai as an example, from the indicator of industrial energy terminal consumption, in 2011, Shanghai's industrial energy terminal consumption reached a peak of 61,657,000 tons of standard coal, and then showed a downward trend in fluctuations, and by 2019, this value had dropped to 56,680,500 tons of standard coal.

During the same period, Shanghai's industrial value added increased from 723.057 billion yuan in 2011 to 967.068 billion yuan in 2019, rising year by year. Behind this drop and rise, reflecting the structural upgrade of Shanghai's industry and energy-saving efficiency. The Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission recently informed the public that in recent years, Shanghai has solidly promoted the total energy consumption and intensity of "double control", continued to implement industrial restructuring, and actively carry out green low-carbon cycle pilot demonstration.

In January this year, Shanghai took the lead in the country to propose the latest carbon peak schedule, and by 2025, the total carbon emissions should strive to reach the peak.

In 2017, the General Office of Guangzhou Municipal Government issued the 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in Guangzhou (2016-2020), which proposed that by the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the city's industrial structure and energy By the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the city's industrial structure and energy consumption structure will be further optimized, energy utilization efficiency will continue to improve, energy consumption and total carbon emissions will be effectively controlled, and the city will strive to reach the peak of total carbon emissions.

Guangzhou's carbon emission trading is leading in the country. According to the data of Guangzhou Carbon Institute, as of March 21, 2021, the cumulative turnover of carbon emission allowances in Guangdong Province was 175 million tons, accounting for 37.91% of the national carbon trading pilot, and ranking first in the country; the cumulative turnover was 3.636 billion yuan, accounting for 34.00% of the national carbon trading pilot, making it the first domestic carbon market where the spot trading amount of allowances exceeded 3.5 billion yuan. It became the first pilot carbon market in China to exceed the 3.5 billion yuan mark.

Among the four first-tier cities, Shenzhen has the highest proportion of secondary industry, 37.8% in 2020, but Shenzhen is also the standard bearer of industrial optimization and upgrading. During the 12th Five-Year Plan, Shenzhen eliminated more than 17,000 low-end enterprises, and basically withdrew from heavy polluting industries such as steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum and coal.

In November 2020, Wu You, deputy secretary-general of the Shenzhen Municipal Government, introduced that Shenzhen's energy consumption per unit of industrial added value has dropped by nearly 60% in the past 10 years. Among China's megacities, Shenzhen has the lowest level of carbon emissions and the slowest growth of carbon emissions.

In 2019, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen) took the lead in completing a research report on "Shenzhen's carbon emission peaking and air quality compliance and economic quality development compliance", in which the group pointed out that Shenzhen is on the way to reach the carbon peak, and it is not certain which day and which point to reach the peak, but Shenzhen is in a The research group pointed out that Shenzhen is on the way to reach the carbon peak.

(Data sources: local statistical bureaus, China City Statistical Yearbook 2019, the first three indicators are all 2020 data, the last one is 2018 data, GDP per capita is obtained by dividing each city's 2020 GDP by the number of resident population in Qipu.)

Industrial cities need to fully exploit the space for carbon reduction

According to a study, China will reach the peak of carbon emissions and enter the stage of absolute emission reduction when the national per capita GDP reaches 14,000 USD, according to the calculation of "CO2 emissions strive to reach the peak by 2030". Cities and regions with per capita GDP of US$14,000 are in a good position to take the lead in the absolute reduction of carbon emissions.

Based on the average exchange rate of RMB 6.8974 to US$1 in 2020, US$14,000 is equivalent to RMB 96,564. In addition to the four top tier cities, 11 cities, Nanjing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wuhan, Xiamen, Qingdao, Changsha, Jinan, Hefei and Tianjin, have crossed this threshold.

Combined with the industrial structure, Suzhou has the highest share of secondary industry at 46.5%, and its electricity consumption per unit of GDP was as high as 856 kWh per 10,000 yuan in 2018, equivalent to nearly two times that of Shanghai.

Suzhou released the Suzhou Low Carbon Development Plan in 2014, proposing to strive to peak total CO2 emissions by 2020. In recent years, Suzhou's energy efficiency level is gradually improving, but the proportion of energy consumption in high-energy-consuming industrial sectors is still high. According to the Suzhou Statistical Yearbook, the comprehensive energy consumption of Suzhou's on-board industries reached 53.07 million tons of standard coal in 2017, of which the comprehensive energy consumption of six high-energy-consuming industries, including electricity, iron and steel, textile, paper, chemical and building materials, reached 43.75 million tons of standard coal, accounting for about 82% of the energy consumption of on-board industries.

Ningbo is also an important manufacturing base on the southeast coast, with the secondary industry accounting for 45.9%. Ningbo's electricity consumption per unit of GDP is 721 kWh/yuan, which is only lower than that of Suzhou.

However, in contrast, Changsha, which also has a similarly low share of secondary industry (38.4%), has a unit GDP electricity consumption of only 331 kWh per million yuan, the lowest among the 20 cities mentioned above.

This may be due to the "greening" of Changsha's industrial structure, as data from Changsha Statistical Yearbook shows that in 2018, the energy consumption of Changsha's ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry (one of the six high-energy consuming industries) was only 4,443 tons of standard coal, compared with 18.34 million tons of standard coal in Suzhou in the same year.

A local official once concluded that Changsha is a new industrial city, whether it is the traditional engineering machinery, or food and beverage, automobile and parts manufacturing, materials, electronic information, mobile Internet and other industries, all belong to the new industrial industry. From this perspective, Changsha may be considered a model city for the development of green industry.

The five cities with per capita GDP below 14,000 USD also have a high proportion of secondary industries, all above 30%, with Dalian and Chongqing reaching 40%.

According to the 21st Century Institute of Economic Research, in terms of carbon emission reduction, one of the primary focuses of industrial cities should be to save energy and increase efficiency in the industrial production process, seek lower-emission energy alternatives, use energy-saving technologies, etc., and actively adjust the industrial structure, upgrade the industrial level, accelerate the upgrading and withdrawal of high-energy-consuming and high-emission industries, and develop clean industries in order to fully exploit the carbon emission reduction space of the secondary industry.

Since this year, the relevant ministries and commissions have repeatedly sent signals of strict control of high-energy-consuming and high-emission projects, which will largely force the transformation of the city's industrial structure.

In March, the relevant leaders of Tianjin Ecological Environment Bureau said in a report on the work of carbon peak and carbon neutral, the implementation of carbon peak action, the essence is to promote the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, gradually get rid of high carbon dependence, and synergistically promote high-quality economic and social development and high level of ecological and environmental protection. The policy measures in the industrial field are mainly to implement low-carbon transformation of traditional industries and develop clean and low-carbon industries.

Dalian has also recently revealed that it has completed the first draft of the "Dalian Carbon Summit" action plan, which will focus on three aspects: resolutely curbing the "two high" projects, strengthening stock management, and strictly controlling the incremental amount to implement the peak measures.

In addition, although carbon reduction in industry does not necessarily mean reducing the proportion of secondary industry, objectively speaking, tapping the potential of service industry and residential consumption will indeed help reduce energy consumption in cities.

According to S&P Global Ratings, if the share of consumption in GDP can reach a level close to that of developed economies, then China's carbon emissions can be expected to be reduced by more than 30% in the next 20 years. As people's income grows and consumption becomes more important to the economy, demand for services will also rise relative to demand for goods. If capital and labor are shifted from the production of steel, cement and capital goods to the provision of education, healthcare and leisure services, etc., then the level of energy consumption per unit of GDP is likely to fall.

　　

 

How to reduce carbon during the operation of the city?

 

Do cities with lower GDP per capita and a higher share of secondary industries necessarily face a more serious situation in terms of carbon peaking?

The answer is no. In fact, in addition to the more economically developed areas of the eastern seaboard, some renewable energy resource-rich areas in the southwest are also inherently endowed with the same advantages.

Kunming, for example, is located in Yunnan Province, the province's clean electricity generation accounted for 92%, non-fossil energy accounted for 46% of primary energy consumption, ranking first in the country.

Yunnan Province is rich in energy resources and its energy structure is mainly based on low-carbon non-fossil energy. The proportion of installed green energy, the proportion of green power generation, the proportion of clean energy trading and the proportion of non-fossil energy to primary energy consumption are all at the world's top level. Yunnan Province proposed this year that it plans to increase the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption to more than 50% by 2030, and strive to build a national emission peak and carbon neutrality demonstration province.

The 21st Century Institute of Economic Research believes that cities with relatively low per capita GDP but good clean energy endowment, represented by Kunming, can fully seize the opportunity to vigorously develop green and low-carbon industries, and are expected to achieve a bend in urban competition in the new development pattern in the future.

For some cities, the low-carbon transformation of industrial structure has been largely completed, and energy supply mainly relies on foreign transfers, carbon reduction efforts should probably focus more on reducing carbon emissions from the city operation itself.

Low carbon development is closely related to factors such as city size and population density, and carbon emission reduction on the resident side and consumption side needs to be paid attention to. According to the experience of developed countries that have completed industrialization, carbon emissions generated by residential consumption become the main growth point of national carbon emissions, which can be as high as 60%-80%.

Taking Beijing and Shanghai as a comparison, in 2019, the per capita domestic energy use of the two cities is 785.3 kg of standard coal and 528.92 kg of standard coal, respectively. On this indicator, Beijing faces a relatively more serious situation.

It is important to note that it is not the case that the smaller the population of a city is, the better it is for carbon reduction. From existing studies, carbon emissions per capita in cities worldwide are inversely proportional to the population density of cities, which may be mainly due to the scale effect of urban agglomeration. As the population agglomeration increases, the infrastructure and energy consumption per capita decreases due to the increase in sharing. Of course, cities should also balance density and livability.

Data from the seventh national census shows that the 20 cities mentioned above have been in a phase of significant net population inflow in the past 10 years, except for Xiamen where the resident population is only 5.164 million, the other 19 cities have exceeded 7 million, and there is no shortage of cities with a population of 10 million. Judging from the law of population development and the current population policy of most cities, the trend of population gathering to big cities will continue in the future.

The population size will affect car ownership, commuting distance, and building density, which in turn will directly affect the carbon emissions of cities.

Under the predictable trend of population concentration, cities should fully consider the requirements of low-carbon development, whether in spatial planning or even industrial planning, or in renovation and renewal, such as optimizing the land use structure and regulating the relationship between employment and housing; increasing the coverage of rail transportation, giving public transportation, bicycles and walking more adequate right-of-way protection; guiding citizens to purchase or replace new energy vehicles; and focusing on the application of energy-saving building renovation technology. The 21st Century Institute of Economic Research believes that the low-carbon concept should be integrated into the operation of the city.

In addition, according to the 21st Century Institute of Economic Research, the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutral targets requires the participation of the whole society, and the carbon reduction actions of individuals are equally important, and government departments can lead the low-carbon transformation of residents' consumption side, including the establishment of effective incentive mechanisms.

At present, cities including Shanghai and Shenzhen have proposed to promote "carbon credit".

Cheng Peng, the director of the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Ecology and Environment, recently revealed that Shanghai is preparing a carbon credit program, which includes the preparation of a carbon credit project. Simply put, the carbon dioxide emissions reduced by citizens' various low-carbon behaviors will be accounted for and turned into "carbon credits" in each individual's account, which will then be connected to Shanghai's carbon trading market and various commercial consumption platforms, so that citizens who practice low-carbon living will receive real incentives.

According to the 21st Century Institute of Economic Research, some of the above 20 observation cities are moving towards the post-industrialization era, some have completed the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, and carbon emissions are gradually decoupled from economic development, some are rich in clean resources, and some are actively planning for carbon reduction on the consumption side, which actually provides ideas for different types of cities to achieve carbon peak. Low-carbon transformation is already a clear direction, and whoever is more proactive will be more likely to seize the high ground in the new urban competition in the future.

Anhui Yuanchen Environmental Technology Co., Ltd (hereinafter referred to as "Yuanchen Technology") is a high-tech enterprise integrating R&D, production and sales of dust removal bags and denitrification catalysts. Over the past sixteen years, Yuanchen Technology has been focusing on the environmental protection field, and now has 4 international PCT, 33 authorized invention patents and 77 invention patents in process, among which many products such as "dust removal and denitrification integrated technology products" have been awarded the Scientific Progress Award of Anhui Province. Our dust removal bags (mainly PPS, PTFE, P84 and composite series needle felt) and SCR denitrification catalysts have been widely used in cement, steel, glass kilns, waste incineration power generation, biomass power generation, non-ferrous metal smelting and other industries.

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